Brad Knox
Age: 27
Team: OAK
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 6 |
9 |
140 |
154 |
22 |
52 |
68 |
7 |
85 |
79 |
5.08 |
23 |
23 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
106 |
133 |
47 |
48 |
22 |
8 |
6.45 |
| 20th |
115 |
138 |
48 |
53 |
22 |
7 |
5.95 |
| 30th |
124 |
143 |
49 |
58 |
22 |
7 |
5.52 |
| 40th |
131 |
149 |
51 |
63 |
22 |
7 |
5.36 |
| 50th |
140 |
154 |
52 |
68 |
22 |
7 |
5.08 |
| 60th |
143 |
154 |
51 |
71 |
21 |
7 |
4.78 |
| 70th |
147 |
153 |
51 |
74 |
20 |
6 |
4.53 |
| 80th |
151 |
152 |
50 |
77 |
19 |
6 |
4.23 |
| 90th |
156 |
150 |
48 |
81 |
17 |
5 |
3.87 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 10 |
1.0 |
4.8 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
27 |
139 |
156 |
53 |
74 |
22 |
7 |
5.17 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
| 2010 |
28 |
125 |
141 |
47 |
66 |
20 |
6 |
5.19 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
| 2011 |
29 |
113 |
127 |
42 |
59 |
18 |
6 |
5.16 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| 2012 |
30 |
101 |
114 |
38 |
53 |
16 |
5 |
5.18 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
| 2013 |
31 |
91 |
103 |
35 |
46 |
14 |
5 |
5.21 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
| 2014 |
32 |
82 |
93 |
32 |
41 |
13 |
4 |
5.25 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.