John Lackey
Age: 30
Team: LAA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 11 |
9 |
183 |
185 |
19 |
49 |
146 |
10 |
87 |
80 |
3.93 |
28 |
28 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
141 |
158 |
44 |
108 |
19 |
10 |
4.85 |
| 20th |
151 |
165 |
45 |
117 |
19 |
10 |
4.59 |
| 30th |
162 |
171 |
46 |
127 |
19 |
10 |
4.33 |
| 40th |
172 |
178 |
48 |
136 |
19 |
10 |
4.19 |
| 50th |
183 |
185 |
49 |
146 |
19 |
10 |
3.93 |
| 60th |
187 |
185 |
48 |
151 |
18 |
10 |
3.75 |
| 70th |
192 |
185 |
48 |
155 |
17 |
9 |
3.56 |
| 80th |
197 |
184 |
47 |
161 |
16 |
8 |
3.34 |
| 90th |
202 |
182 |
45 |
167 |
14 |
8 |
3.03 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 37 |
3.5 |
15.8 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
30 |
184 |
181 |
50 |
155 |
20 |
10 |
3.86 |
1.0 |
3.5 |
15.5 |
| 2010 |
31 |
165 |
163 |
46 |
138 |
18 |
9 |
3.90 |
1.0 |
3.1 |
15.2 |
| 2011 |
32 |
148 |
147 |
42 |
122 |
16 |
8 |
3.93 |
1.0 |
2.8 |
14.7 |
| 2012 |
33 |
133 |
133 |
38 |
108 |
14 |
7 |
3.94 |
1.0 |
2.5 |
14.5 |
| 2013 |
34 |
119 |
121 |
35 |
95 |
13 |
6 |
4.06 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
12.9 |
| 2014 |
35 |
107 |
109 |
32 |
84 |
12 |
6 |
4.12 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
12.1 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.