Baseball Projection.com

John Lannan

Age: 24 Team: WAS

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
7	10	148	158	17	62	94	6	83	77	4.68	27	27

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	113	136	55	68	18	7	5.89
20th	122	141	57	75	17	6	5.39
30th	131	147	58	81	17	6	5.08
40th	140	152	60	88	17	6	4.82
50th	148	158	62	94	17	6	4.68
60th	152	158	61	97	16	6	4.38
70th	156	158	61	101	15	5	4.15
80th	160	156	60	105	14	5	3.83
90th	165	155	58	110	13	4	3.60

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

16 1.5 7.0

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 24 148 159 62 88 17 6 4.68 1.0 1.4 6.3

2010 25 133 143 55 79 15 6 4.67 1.0 1.3 6.5

2011 26 120 130 48 71 14 5 4.69 1.0 1.1 6.1

2012 27 108 117 43 63 13 5 4.72 1.0 1.0 6.1

2013 28 97 106 38 56 11 4 4.69 1.0 0.9 6.1

2014 29 88 96 33 50 10 4 4.65 1.0 0.9 6.1

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
16	1.5	7.0

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	24	148	159	62	88	17	6	4.68	1.0	1.4	6.3
2010	25	133	143	55	79	15	6	4.67	1.0	1.3	6.5
2011	26	120	130	48	71	14	5	4.69	1.0	1.1	6.1
2012	27	108	117	43	63	13	5	4.72	1.0	1.0	6.1
2013	28	97	106	38	56	11	4	4.69	1.0	0.9	6.1
2014	29	88	96	33	50	10	4	4.65	1.0	0.9	6.1

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.