Brian Lawrence
Age: 33
Team: ATL
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
4 |
77 |
87 |
9 |
22 |
45 |
3 |
43 |
40 |
4.68 |
13 |
13 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
58 |
76 |
21 |
31 |
10 |
4 |
6.21 |
| 20th |
63 |
79 |
21 |
35 |
10 |
4 |
5.71 |
| 30th |
68 |
81 |
21 |
38 |
9 |
3 |
5.16 |
| 40th |
73 |
84 |
22 |
42 |
9 |
3 |
4.81 |
| 50th |
77 |
87 |
22 |
45 |
9 |
3 |
4.68 |
| 60th |
80 |
86 |
21 |
47 |
8 |
3 |
4.16 |
| 70th |
82 |
86 |
21 |
49 |
8 |
2 |
3.95 |
| 80th |
84 |
85 |
20 |
51 |
7 |
2 |
3.64 |
| 90th |
87 |
83 |
19 |
54 |
6 |
1 |
3.21 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 8 |
0.8 |
3.9 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
33 |
77 |
89 |
22 |
42 |
9 |
3 |
4.74 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
2.9 |
| 2010 |
34 |
69 |
80 |
20 |
37 |
8 |
3 |
4.78 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
2.8 |
| 2011 |
35 |
62 |
73 |
18 |
33 |
8 |
3 |
4.97 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
| 2012 |
36 |
55 |
65 |
17 |
29 |
7 |
3 |
5.05 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
| 2013 |
37 |
50 |
59 |
16 |
25 |
6 |
2 |
4.98 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
| 2014 |
38 |
44 |
54 |
14 |
22 |
6 |
2 |
5.34 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.