Jon Lester
Age: 25
Team: BOS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 10 |
7 |
156 |
159 |
15 |
59 |
115 |
7 |
79 |
73 |
4.21 |
28 |
28 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
119 |
137 |
52 |
84 |
16 |
7 |
5.29 |
| 20th |
129 |
141 |
54 |
92 |
15 |
7 |
4.81 |
| 30th |
138 |
147 |
55 |
100 |
15 |
7 |
4.57 |
| 40th |
147 |
153 |
57 |
107 |
15 |
7 |
4.35 |
| 50th |
156 |
159 |
59 |
115 |
15 |
7 |
4.21 |
| 60th |
159 |
159 |
59 |
119 |
14 |
7 |
4.02 |
| 70th |
163 |
159 |
58 |
123 |
14 |
6 |
3.81 |
| 80th |
167 |
158 |
57 |
127 |
12 |
6 |
3.56 |
| 90th |
172 |
156 |
56 |
133 |
11 |
5 |
3.30 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 27 |
2.6 |
11.8 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
157 |
156 |
59 |
125 |
16 |
7 |
4.11 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
11.3 |
| 2010 |
26 |
141 |
141 |
52 |
112 |
14 |
6 |
4.09 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
11.5 |
| 2011 |
27 |
127 |
127 |
46 |
100 |
13 |
6 |
4.11 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
11.2 |
| 2012 |
28 |
114 |
115 |
41 |
89 |
12 |
5 |
4.16 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
10.6 |
| 2013 |
29 |
103 |
104 |
36 |
79 |
10 |
5 |
4.09 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
11.0 |
| 2014 |
30 |
93 |
94 |
33 |
71 |
9 |
4 |
4.09 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
10.8 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.