Tim Lincecum
Age: 25
Team: SFN
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 10 |
7 |
154 |
130 |
11 |
60 |
175 |
5 |
59 |
55 |
3.21 |
25 |
25 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
118 |
112 |
53 |
131 |
12 |
6 |
4.12 |
| 20th |
128 |
116 |
55 |
142 |
11 |
5 |
3.66 |
| 30th |
137 |
121 |
56 |
153 |
11 |
5 |
3.48 |
| 40th |
146 |
125 |
58 |
164 |
11 |
5 |
3.33 |
| 50th |
154 |
130 |
60 |
175 |
11 |
5 |
3.21 |
| 60th |
158 |
129 |
60 |
180 |
10 |
5 |
2.96 |
| 70th |
162 |
130 |
59 |
185 |
10 |
4 |
2.83 |
| 80th |
166 |
129 |
58 |
191 |
9 |
4 |
2.66 |
| 90th |
170 |
128 |
57 |
198 |
8 |
3 |
2.44 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 40 |
3.8 |
17.1 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
153 |
132 |
61 |
166 |
12 |
5 |
3.33 |
1.0 |
3.9 |
17.2 |
| 2010 |
26 |
138 |
120 |
53 |
149 |
11 |
4 |
3.33 |
1.0 |
3.5 |
17.1 |
| 2011 |
27 |
124 |
109 |
47 |
133 |
10 |
4 |
3.38 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
16.2 |
| 2012 |
28 |
112 |
99 |
42 |
119 |
9 |
3 |
3.37 |
1.0 |
2.8 |
16.2 |
| 2013 |
29 |
101 |
89 |
37 |
106 |
8 |
3 |
3.34 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
16.6 |
| 2014 |
30 |
91 |
80 |
34 |
94 |
7 |
3 |
3.34 |
1.0 |
2.3 |
16.2 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.