Derek Lowe
Age: 36
Team: ATL
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 12 |
7 |
173 |
175 |
12 |
46 |
114 |
3 |
74 |
68 |
3.54 |
28 |
28 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
133 |
149 |
41 |
84 |
13 |
4 |
4.40 |
| 20th |
143 |
156 |
42 |
92 |
13 |
3 |
4.15 |
| 30th |
153 |
162 |
43 |
99 |
12 |
3 |
3.88 |
| 40th |
163 |
168 |
45 |
107 |
12 |
3 |
3.70 |
| 50th |
173 |
175 |
46 |
114 |
12 |
3 |
3.54 |
| 60th |
176 |
175 |
46 |
117 |
11 |
3 |
3.43 |
| 70th |
180 |
176 |
45 |
121 |
11 |
2 |
3.30 |
| 80th |
185 |
175 |
44 |
126 |
10 |
2 |
3.06 |
| 90th |
189 |
174 |
43 |
130 |
9 |
2 |
2.86 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 35 |
3.3 |
14.9 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
36 |
171 |
181 |
46 |
106 |
12 |
3 |
3.77 |
1.0 |
3.4 |
15.1 |
| 2010 |
37 |
153 |
164 |
42 |
93 |
11 |
3 |
3.86 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
14.3 |
| 2011 |
38 |
137 |
148 |
39 |
82 |
10 |
2 |
3.92 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
13.7 |
| 2012 |
39 |
123 |
134 |
35 |
72 |
9 |
2 |
3.97 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
12.8 |
| 2013 |
40 |
111 |
121 |
32 |
63 |
8 |
2 |
3.98 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
12.9 |
| 2014 |
41 |
99 |
110 |
30 |
55 |
8 |
2 |
4.19 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
10.8 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.