Baseball Projection.com

Michael MacDonald

Age: 27 Team: TOR

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
6	8	131	150	20	40	63	7	79	73	5.02	25	25

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	99	130	37	44	21	8	6.45
20th	107	134	38	49	20	7	5.89
30th	115	139	38	54	20	7	5.56
40th	123	145	39	58	20	7	5.27
50th	131	150	40	63	20	7	5.02
60th	134	149	39	66	19	7	4.70
70th	138	149	39	68	18	6	4.43
80th	142	148	37	72	17	5	4.12
90th	146	145	36	76	15	5	3.70

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

12 1.1 5.2

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 27 131 150 40 67 18 7 4.88 1.0 1.0 4.2

2010 28 118 135 35 60 16 6 4.83 1.0 1.0 4.6

2011 29 106 123 31 53 15 5 4.93 1.0 0.8 4.1

2012 30 95 110 29 47 13 5 4.94 1.0 0.7 3.9

2013 31 85 100 26 42 12 4 5.04 1.0 0.5 3.1

2014 32 77 90 24 37 11 4 5.05 1.0 0.5 3.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
12	1.1	5.2

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	27	131	150	40	67	18	7	4.88	1.0	1.0	4.2
2010	28	118	135	35	60	16	6	4.83	1.0	1.0	4.6
2011	29	106	123	31	53	15	5	4.93	1.0	0.8	4.1
2012	30	95	110	29	47	13	5	4.94	1.0	0.7	3.9
2013	31	85	100	26	42	12	4	5.04	1.0	0.5	3.1
2014	32	77	90	24	37	11	4	5.05	1.0	0.5	3.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.