Justin Masterson
Age: 24
Team: BOS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
3 |
64 |
60 |
5 |
28 |
58 |
4 |
29 |
27 |
3.8 |
55 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
48 |
53 |
25 |
42 |
6 |
4 |
5.25 |
| 20th |
52 |
55 |
26 |
46 |
6 |
4 |
5.02 |
| 30th |
56 |
56 |
27 |
50 |
5 |
4 |
4.34 |
| 40th |
60 |
58 |
27 |
54 |
5 |
4 |
4.05 |
| 50th |
64 |
60 |
28 |
58 |
5 |
4 |
3.80 |
| 60th |
65 |
60 |
28 |
60 |
5 |
4 |
3.74 |
| 70th |
68 |
59 |
27 |
63 |
4 |
3 |
3.18 |
| 80th |
69 |
59 |
27 |
65 |
4 |
3 |
3.13 |
| 90th |
72 |
57 |
26 |
68 |
3 |
3 |
2.63 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 7 |
0.8 |
3.9 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
24 |
65 |
58 |
28 |
63 |
5 |
4 |
3.59 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
3.4 |
| 2010 |
25 |
58 |
53 |
25 |
57 |
5 |
4 |
3.78 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
| 2011 |
26 |
53 |
47 |
22 |
51 |
4 |
3 |
3.51 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
4.4 |
| 2012 |
27 |
47 |
43 |
19 |
46 |
4 |
3 |
3.70 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
2.9 |
| 2013 |
28 |
42 |
39 |
17 |
41 |
3 |
3 |
3.68 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
2.6 |
| 2014 |
29 |
39 |
35 |
15 |
36 |
3 |
2 |
3.48 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
4.3 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.