Doug Mathis
Age: 26
Team: TEX
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 5 |
6 |
103 |
122 |
14 |
43 |
55 |
4 |
66 |
61 |
5.33 |
19 |
19 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
77 |
106 |
40 |
37 |
15 |
5 |
7.13 |
| 20th |
84 |
110 |
40 |
42 |
15 |
5 |
6.54 |
| 30th |
91 |
114 |
41 |
47 |
14 |
4 |
5.93 |
| 40th |
97 |
118 |
42 |
51 |
14 |
4 |
5.66 |
| 50th |
103 |
122 |
43 |
55 |
14 |
4 |
5.33 |
| 60th |
106 |
121 |
42 |
58 |
13 |
4 |
4.92 |
| 70th |
109 |
121 |
42 |
60 |
12 |
3 |
4.62 |
| 80th |
113 |
120 |
40 |
63 |
11 |
3 |
4.30 |
| 90th |
116 |
118 |
39 |
67 |
10 |
2 |
3.88 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 10 |
1.0 |
4.8 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
105 |
118 |
43 |
60 |
13 |
4 |
4.94 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
3.4 |
| 2010 |
27 |
94 |
107 |
38 |
54 |
12 |
3 |
5.00 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
2.8 |
| 2011 |
28 |
85 |
96 |
34 |
48 |
11 |
3 |
4.97 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
| 2012 |
29 |
76 |
87 |
30 |
42 |
10 |
3 |
5.06 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
| 2013 |
30 |
69 |
79 |
27 |
38 |
9 |
2 |
5.01 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
| 2014 |
31 |
62 |
71 |
25 |
33 |
8 |
2 |
5.05 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.