Baseball Projection.com

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Age: 28 Team: BOS

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
11	7	169	156	16	75	158	7	79	73	3.89	27	27

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	129	134	66	117	17	8	4.95
20th	140	139	68	127	16	7	4.50
30th	150	144	70	138	16	7	4.20
40th	159	150	73	148	16	7	4.08
50th	169	156	75	158	16	7	3.89
60th	173	156	75	163	15	7	3.69
70th	177	156	74	168	15	6	3.51
80th	182	155	73	174	13	6	3.26
90th	187	153	71	181	12	5	2.98

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

36 3.4 15.4

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 28 170 152 75 172 17 7 3.78 1.0 3.4 15.1

2010 29 154 137 66 153 15 7 3.72 1.0 3.2 15.7

2011 30 138 123 61 136 13 6 3.73 1.0 2.9 15.2

2012 31 123 112 56 120 12 5 3.87 1.0 2.4 13.9

2013 32 111 101 51 106 11 5 3.91 1.0 2.1 13.5

2014 33 99 91 47 94 10 4 3.99 1.0 1.7 12.1

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
36	3.4	15.4

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	28	170	152	75	172	17	7	3.78	1.0	3.4	15.1
2010	29	154	137	66	153	15	7	3.72	1.0	3.2	15.7
2011	30	138	123	61	136	13	6	3.73	1.0	2.9	15.2
2012	31	123	112	56	120	12	5	3.87	1.0	2.4	13.9
2013	32	111	101	51	106	11	5	3.91	1.0	2.1	13.5
2014	33	99	91	47	94	10	4	3.99	1.0	1.7	12.1

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.