Brandon McCarthy
Age: 25
Team: TEX
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 5 |
4 |
79 |
83 |
11 |
31 |
52 |
2 |
44 |
41 |
4.67 |
17 |
17 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
59 |
74 |
29 |
35 |
12 |
3 |
6.56 |
| 20th |
64 |
76 |
30 |
40 |
12 |
3 |
6.05 |
| 30th |
69 |
78 |
30 |
44 |
11 |
2 |
5.35 |
| 40th |
74 |
81 |
30 |
48 |
11 |
2 |
4.99 |
| 50th |
79 |
83 |
31 |
52 |
11 |
2 |
4.67 |
| 60th |
81 |
82 |
30 |
54 |
10 |
2 |
4.33 |
| 70th |
84 |
82 |
30 |
57 |
10 |
1 |
4.07 |
| 80th |
87 |
79 |
29 |
60 |
8 |
1 |
3.41 |
| 90th |
90 |
78 |
27 |
64 |
7 |
0 |
3.10 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 13 |
1.2 |
5.7 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
80 |
80 |
31 |
57 |
10 |
2 |
4.30 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
5.0 |
| 2010 |
26 |
72 |
72 |
28 |
50 |
9 |
2 |
4.31 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
5.1 |
| 2011 |
27 |
65 |
65 |
24 |
45 |
8 |
2 |
4.25 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
5.1 |
| 2012 |
28 |
58 |
59 |
21 |
40 |
7 |
2 |
4.31 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
5.0 |
| 2013 |
29 |
53 |
53 |
19 |
36 |
7 |
2 |
4.31 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
4.9 |
| 2014 |
30 |
47 |
48 |
17 |
32 |
6 |
1 |
4.34 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
4.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.