Dustin McGowan
Age: 27
Team: TOR
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 7 |
6 |
118 |
116 |
11 |
44 |
94 |
4 |
56 |
52 |
3.97 |
22 |
22 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
90 |
100 |
40 |
68 |
12 |
5 |
5.10 |
| 20th |
97 |
104 |
41 |
75 |
11 |
4 |
4.64 |
| 30th |
104 |
108 |
42 |
81 |
11 |
4 |
4.41 |
| 40th |
111 |
112 |
43 |
88 |
11 |
4 |
4.14 |
| 50th |
118 |
116 |
44 |
94 |
11 |
4 |
3.97 |
| 60th |
121 |
115 |
44 |
97 |
10 |
4 |
3.72 |
| 70th |
124 |
116 |
43 |
101 |
10 |
3 |
3.56 |
| 80th |
128 |
114 |
42 |
105 |
9 |
3 |
3.23 |
| 90th |
131 |
113 |
41 |
109 |
8 |
2 |
2.95 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 24 |
2.3 |
10.5 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
27 |
119 |
115 |
44 |
99 |
10 |
4 |
3.79 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
10.5 |
| 2010 |
28 |
107 |
104 |
39 |
89 |
9 |
4 |
3.81 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
10.1 |
| 2011 |
29 |
96 |
94 |
34 |
79 |
8 |
3 |
3.80 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
10.1 |
| 2012 |
30 |
86 |
85 |
31 |
70 |
7 |
3 |
3.85 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
9.5 |
| 2013 |
31 |
77 |
77 |
29 |
62 |
7 |
3 |
4.03 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
8.6 |
| 2014 |
32 |
69 |
69 |
26 |
55 |
6 |
3 |
4.01 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
8.8 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.