Baseball Projection.com

Kevin Millwood

Age: 34 Team: TEX

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
9	9	160	189	17	52	112	6	94	87	4.89	27	27

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	123	160	47	82	17	7	5.93
20th	133	167	48	90	17	6	5.48
30th	142	174	49	97	17	6	5.26
40th	151	182	51	104	17	6	5.07
50th	160	189	52	112	17	6	4.89
60th	164	189	52	116	16	6	4.66
70th	168	190	51	120	16	5	4.45
80th	172	189	50	124	14	5	4.19
90th	177	188	49	129	13	4	3.92

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

21 2.0 9.2

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 34 163 182 52 122 16 6 4.49 1.0 2.0 8.8

2010 35 146 164 48 107 14 5 4.52 1.0 1.7 8.3

2011 36 131 149 44 94 13 5 4.65 1.0 1.3 7.1

2012 37 117 135 40 83 12 4 4.76 1.0 1.0 6.1

2013 38 105 121 37 73 10 4 4.74 1.0 0.9 6.1

2014 39 95 109 34 64 9 3 4.71 1.0 0.9 6.1

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
21	2.0	9.2

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	34	163	182	52	122	16	6	4.49	1.0	2.0	8.8
2010	35	146	164	48	107	14	5	4.52	1.0	1.7	8.3
2011	36	131	149	44	94	13	5	4.65	1.0	1.3	7.1
2012	37	117	135	40	83	12	4	4.76	1.0	1.0	6.1
2013	38	105	121	37	73	10	4	4.74	1.0	0.9	6.1
2014	39	95	109	34	64	9	3	4.71	1.0	0.9	6.1

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.