Baseball Projection.com

Juan Morillo

Age: 25 Team: COL

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
3	4	61	59	7	45	61	3	37	34	5.02	57	0

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	45	52	41	43	8	4	7.00
20th	49	54	42	48	8	3	6.43
30th	54	55	43	52	7	3	5.50
40th	57	57	44	57	7	3	5.37
50th	61	59	45	61	7	3	5.02
60th	63	59	45	63	7	3	4.71
70th	65	58	44	66	6	2	4.29
80th	67	57	43	69	5	2	3.90
90th	70	55	42	73	4	2	3.34

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

3 0.3 1.7

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 25 62 57 45 61 6 3 4.59 1.0 0.0 0.4

2010 26 56 52 39 55 6 2 4.61 1.0 0.0 0.4

2011 27 51 47 35 49 5 2 4.49 1.0 0.0 0.4

2012 28 45 43 31 44 5 2 4.78 1.0 0.0 0.4

2013 29 41 39 27 39 4 2 4.59 1.0 0.0 0.4

2014 30 37 35 25 34 4 2 4.71 1.0 0.0 0.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
3	0.3	1.7

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	Value ($mil)
2009	25	62	57	45	61	6	3	4.59	1.0	0.4
2010	26	56	52	39	55	6	2	4.61	1.0	0.4
2011	27	51	47	35	49	5	2	4.49	1.0	0.4
2012	28	45	43	31	44	5	2	4.78	1.0	0.4
2013	29	41	39	27	39	4	2	4.59	1.0	0.4
2014	30	37	35	25	34	4	2	4.71	1.0	0.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.