Bill Murphy
Age: 28
Team: TOR
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
4 |
68 |
67 |
7 |
38 |
65 |
3 |
37 |
34 |
4.5 |
61 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
52 |
58 |
34 |
47 |
7 |
3 |
5.71 |
| 20th |
56 |
60 |
35 |
52 |
7 |
3 |
5.30 |
| 30th |
60 |
62 |
36 |
56 |
7 |
3 |
4.95 |
| 40th |
64 |
65 |
37 |
61 |
7 |
3 |
4.78 |
| 50th |
68 |
67 |
38 |
65 |
7 |
3 |
4.50 |
| 60th |
70 |
67 |
38 |
67 |
7 |
3 |
4.24 |
| 70th |
72 |
66 |
37 |
70 |
6 |
3 |
3.88 |
| 80th |
74 |
66 |
37 |
72 |
6 |
2 |
3.77 |
| 90th |
76 |
65 |
36 |
75 |
5 |
2 |
3.43 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 4 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
28 |
68 |
66 |
38 |
69 |
6 |
3 |
4.34 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
| 2010 |
29 |
62 |
60 |
33 |
61 |
6 |
3 |
4.33 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
| 2011 |
30 |
55 |
54 |
31 |
54 |
5 |
3 |
4.46 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2012 |
31 |
49 |
49 |
28 |
48 |
5 |
2 |
4.61 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
32 |
44 |
44 |
26 |
42 |
4 |
2 |
4.60 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
33 |
39 |
40 |
24 |
37 |
4 |
2 |
4.89 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.