A.J. Murray
Age: 27
Team: TEX
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 2 |
2 |
39 |
40 |
4 |
16 |
31 |
1 |
20 |
19 |
4.38 |
34 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
28 |
36 |
15 |
21 |
5 |
2 |
6.43 |
| 20th |
31 |
37 |
15 |
24 |
5 |
1 |
5.52 |
| 30th |
34 |
38 |
16 |
26 |
4 |
1 |
5.03 |
| 40th |
36 |
39 |
16 |
29 |
4 |
1 |
4.75 |
| 50th |
39 |
40 |
16 |
31 |
4 |
1 |
4.38 |
| 60th |
40 |
40 |
16 |
32 |
4 |
1 |
4.28 |
| 70th |
41 |
39 |
15 |
34 |
3 |
1 |
3.73 |
| 80th |
43 |
39 |
14 |
36 |
3 |
0 |
3.35 |
| 90th |
44 |
37 |
14 |
38 |
2 |
0 |
2.86 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 4 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
27 |
39 |
38 |
16 |
34 |
4 |
1 |
4.05 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
| 2010 |
28 |
36 |
34 |
14 |
30 |
3 |
1 |
3.73 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
| 2011 |
29 |
32 |
31 |
13 |
27 |
3 |
1 |
3.97 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
| 2012 |
30 |
28 |
28 |
12 |
24 |
3 |
1 |
4.28 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
31 |
26 |
25 |
11 |
21 |
2 |
1 |
3.88 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
| 2014 |
32 |
23 |
23 |
10 |
18 |
2 |
1 |
4.18 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.