Brad Nelson
Age: 27
Team: ATL
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
3 |
50 |
53 |
6 |
19 |
32 |
2 |
27 |
25 |
4.5 |
44 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
37 |
47 |
18 |
22 |
7 |
2 |
6.57 |
| 20th |
40 |
49 |
18 |
25 |
7 |
2 |
6.08 |
| 30th |
44 |
50 |
18 |
27 |
6 |
2 |
5.11 |
| 40th |
47 |
51 |
19 |
29 |
6 |
2 |
4.79 |
| 50th |
50 |
53 |
19 |
32 |
6 |
2 |
4.50 |
| 60th |
51 |
53 |
19 |
33 |
6 |
2 |
4.41 |
| 70th |
53 |
52 |
18 |
35 |
5 |
2 |
3.91 |
| 80th |
55 |
51 |
17 |
37 |
4 |
1 |
3.27 |
| 90th |
56 |
50 |
16 |
39 |
4 |
1 |
3.05 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
27 |
49 |
54 |
19 |
30 |
6 |
2 |
4.81 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
28 |
44 |
50 |
17 |
27 |
6 |
1 |
5.01 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
29 |
40 |
45 |
15 |
24 |
5 |
1 |
4.86 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
30 |
36 |
40 |
14 |
21 |
5 |
1 |
4.93 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
31 |
32 |
36 |
12 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
4.88 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
32 |
29 |
33 |
11 |
17 |
4 |
1 |
5.05 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.