Baseball Projection.com

Jeff Niemann

Age: 26 Team: TBA

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
6	7	112	113	17	47	86	5	63	58	4.66	22	22

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	85	98	42	62	17	6	5.93
20th	92	102	43	68	17	5	5.48
30th	98	106	44	74	17	5	5.23
40th	105	109	46	80	17	5	4.89
50th	112	113	47	86	17	5	4.66
60th	115	113	46	89	16	5	4.38
70th	117	113	46	92	16	4	4.31
80th	121	111	45	96	14	4	3.79
90th	125	109	43	101	13	3	3.46

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

12 1.1 5.2

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 26 111 115 46 90 17 5 4.77 1.0 1.0 4.2

2010 27 101 103 41 81 15 4 4.62 1.0 1.1 5.1

2011 28 90 94 36 72 14 4 4.79 1.0 0.8 4.1

2012 29 82 85 32 64 13 3 4.72 1.0 0.8 4.5

2013 30 73 76 29 57 11 3 4.72 1.0 0.7 4.3

2014 31 65 69 27 50 10 3 4.91 1.0 0.5 3.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
12	1.1	5.2

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	26	111	115	46	90	17	5	4.77	1.0	1.0	4.2
2010	27	101	103	41	81	15	4	4.62	1.0	1.1	5.1
2011	28	90	94	36	72	14	4	4.79	1.0	0.8	4.1
2012	29	82	85	32	64	13	3	4.72	1.0	0.8	4.5
2013	30	73	76	29	57	11	3	4.72	1.0	0.7	4.3
2014	31	65	69	27	50	10	3	4.91	1.0	0.5	3.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.