Baseball Projection.com

Kasey Olenberger

Age: 31 Team: LAA

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
5	8	120	139	24	53	66	5	84	78	5.85	23	23

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	90	120	48	46	24	6	7.50
20th	98	125	49	51	24	6	6.98
30th	105	129	50	57	24	5	6.51
40th	112	134	52	61	24	5	6.19
50th	120	139	53	66	24	5	5.85
60th	123	139	52	69	23	5	5.49
70th	126	138	52	71	22	4	5.21
80th	130	137	51	75	21	4	4.85
90th	134	135	49	79	19	3	4.43

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

4 0.4 2.2

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 31 120 137 54 70 25 5 5.79 1.0 0.0 0.4

2010 32 108 123 49 62 22 5 5.77 1.0 0.0 0.4

2011 33 97 111 45 55 20 4 5.83 1.0 0.0 0.4

2012 34 86 100 42 48 18 4 6.04 1.0 0.0 0.4

2013 35 78 90 38 43 16 3 5.93 1.0 0.0 0.4

2014 36 69 82 35 37 15 3 6.27 1.0 0.0 0.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
4	0.4	2.2

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	Value ($mil)
2009	31	120	137	54	70	25	5	5.79	1.0	0.4
2010	32	108	123	49	62	22	5	5.77	1.0	0.4
2011	33	97	111	45	55	20	4	5.83	1.0	0.4
2012	34	86	100	42	48	18	4	6.04	1.0	0.4
2013	35	78	90	38	43	16	3	5.93	1.0	0.4
2014	36	69	82	35	37	15	3	6.27	1.0	0.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.