Baseball Projection.com

Scott Olsen

Age: 25 Team: WAS

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
8	12	176	197	26	65	116	4	105	97	4.96	31	31

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	134	168	58	85	26	5	6.18
20th	145	175	59	93	26	4	5.77
30th	156	182	61	101	26	4	5.37
40th	165	190	63	108	26	4	5.24
50th	176	197	65	116	26	4	4.96
60th	180	197	65	120	25	4	4.75
70th	184	197	64	124	24	3	4.55
80th	189	197	63	128	23	3	4.33
90th	194	195	61	134	21	2	3.94

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

13 1.2 5.7

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 25 175 198 65 108 26 4 5.03 1.0 1.0 4.6

2010 26 158 179 57 97 24 4 5.04 1.0 0.8 4.1

2011 27 142 162 51 86 21 3 5.03 1.0 0.9 4.6

2012 28 128 146 45 77 19 3 5.02 1.0 0.8 4.5

2013 29 115 132 39 69 17 3 5.03 1.0 0.7 4.3

2014 30 103 120 36 61 16 2 5.17 1.0 0.5 3.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
13	1.2	5.7

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	25	175	198	65	108	26	4	5.03	1.0	1.0	4.6
2010	26	158	179	57	97	24	4	5.04	1.0	0.8	4.1
2011	27	142	162	51	86	21	3	5.03	1.0	0.9	4.6
2012	28	128	146	45	77	19	3	5.02	1.0	0.8	4.5
2013	29	115	132	39	69	17	3	5.03	1.0	0.7	4.3
2014	30	103	120	36	61	16	2	5.17	1.0	0.5	3.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.