Jonathan Papelbon
Age: 28
Team: BOS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 6 |
2 |
68 |
55 |
5 |
13 |
75 |
2 |
21 |
19 |
2.51 |
66 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
51 |
50 |
13 |
53 |
6 |
3 |
3.88 |
| 20th |
56 |
51 |
13 |
59 |
6 |
2 |
3.38 |
| 30th |
60 |
52 |
13 |
65 |
5 |
2 |
2.85 |
| 40th |
64 |
53 |
13 |
70 |
5 |
2 |
2.67 |
| 50th |
68 |
55 |
13 |
75 |
5 |
2 |
2.51 |
| 60th |
70 |
54 |
13 |
78 |
4 |
2 |
2.44 |
| 70th |
72 |
54 |
12 |
81 |
4 |
1 |
2.25 |
| 80th |
74 |
52 |
11 |
84 |
3 |
1 |
1.82 |
| 90th |
76 |
50 |
10 |
88 |
2 |
1 |
1.54 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 17 |
3.2 |
14.5 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
28 |
69 |
53 |
13 |
82 |
5 |
2 |
2.43 |
2.0 |
3.4 |
15.1 |
| 2010 |
29 |
62 |
48 |
12 |
72 |
5 |
2 |
2.54 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
13.8 |
| 2011 |
30 |
55 |
43 |
11 |
64 |
4 |
2 |
2.53 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
13.2 |
| 2012 |
31 |
50 |
40 |
10 |
57 |
4 |
1 |
2.62 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
13.4 |
| 2013 |
32 |
45 |
35 |
9 |
51 |
3 |
1 |
2.44 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
13.5 |
| 2014 |
33 |
40 |
32 |
8 |
45 |
3 |
1 |
2.59 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
12.1 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.