Scott Patterson
Age: 30
Team: NYA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
2 |
49 |
48 |
8 |
18 |
44 |
2 |
26 |
24 |
4.41 |
42 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
35 |
44 |
18 |
30 |
9 |
3 |
7.20 |
| 20th |
39 |
45 |
18 |
34 |
9 |
2 |
6.00 |
| 30th |
43 |
45 |
18 |
37 |
8 |
2 |
5.02 |
| 40th |
45 |
47 |
18 |
41 |
8 |
2 |
5.00 |
| 50th |
49 |
48 |
18 |
44 |
8 |
2 |
4.41 |
| 60th |
50 |
47 |
17 |
46 |
7 |
2 |
3.96 |
| 70th |
51 |
47 |
17 |
48 |
7 |
2 |
3.88 |
| 80th |
54 |
45 |
16 |
51 |
6 |
1 |
3.17 |
| 90th |
56 |
43 |
15 |
54 |
5 |
1 |
2.73 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 4 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
30 |
49 |
47 |
19 |
46 |
8 |
2 |
4.42 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
31 |
44 |
42 |
17 |
41 |
7 |
2 |
4.38 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2011 |
32 |
39 |
38 |
16 |
37 |
6 |
1 |
4.44 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2012 |
33 |
35 |
35 |
14 |
32 |
6 |
1 |
4.66 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
34 |
32 |
31 |
13 |
29 |
5 |
1 |
4.44 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
35 |
28 |
28 |
12 |
25 |
5 |
1 |
4.81 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.