Tony Pena
Age: 27
Team: ARI
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
4 |
75 |
76 |
7 |
22 |
56 |
3 |
35 |
32 |
3.84 |
70 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
56 |
67 |
21 |
39 |
8 |
4 |
5.46 |
| 20th |
61 |
69 |
21 |
43 |
8 |
4 |
4.87 |
| 30th |
66 |
71 |
21 |
48 |
7 |
3 |
4.36 |
| 40th |
71 |
73 |
22 |
52 |
7 |
3 |
4.06 |
| 50th |
75 |
76 |
22 |
56 |
7 |
3 |
3.84 |
| 60th |
77 |
75 |
21 |
58 |
6 |
3 |
3.62 |
| 70th |
79 |
75 |
21 |
61 |
6 |
2 |
3.42 |
| 80th |
82 |
73 |
20 |
64 |
5 |
2 |
2.96 |
| 90th |
85 |
72 |
19 |
67 |
4 |
1 |
2.65 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 8 |
0.9 |
4.4 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
27 |
76 |
74 |
22 |
54 |
6 |
3 |
3.62 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
3.8 |
| 2010 |
28 |
68 |
68 |
19 |
48 |
6 |
3 |
3.79 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
2.8 |
| 2011 |
29 |
61 |
61 |
17 |
43 |
5 |
3 |
3.76 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
| 2012 |
30 |
55 |
56 |
15 |
38 |
5 |
2 |
3.85 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
| 2013 |
31 |
49 |
50 |
14 |
34 |
4 |
2 |
3.84 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
| 2014 |
32 |
44 |
45 |
13 |
30 |
4 |
2 |
3.96 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.