Baseball Projection.com

Brad Penny

Age: 31 Team: BOS

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
7	7	131	151	11	51	71	5	75	69	4.74	24	24

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	100	129	46	50	12	6	6.03
20th	108	135	47	56	12	5	5.67
30th	116	140	48	61	11	5	5.28
40th	124	145	50	66	11	5	4.94
50th	131	151	51	71	11	5	4.74
60th	135	151	50	74	10	5	4.53
70th	138	151	50	77	10	4	4.30
80th	142	150	49	80	9	4	3.99
90th	146	149	47	84	7	3	3.64

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

15 1.4 6.6

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 31 132 149 51 77 12 5 4.69 1.0 1.2 5.4

2010 32 119 134 47 68 10 4 4.64 1.0 1.2 6.0

2011 33 106 121 43 60 9 4 4.77 1.0 1.0 5.1

2012 34 96 109 39 53 8 3 4.71 1.0 1.0 5.6

2013 35 85 99 36 47 8 3 4.99 1.0 0.6 3.7

2014 36 77 89 33 41 7 3 4.95 1.0 0.5 3.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
15	1.4	6.6

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	31	132	149	51	77	12	5	4.69	1.0	1.2	5.4
2010	32	119	134	47	68	10	4	4.64	1.0	1.2	6.0
2011	33	106	121	43	60	9	4	4.77	1.0	1.0	5.1
2012	34	96	109	39	53	8	3	4.71	1.0	1.0	5.6
2013	35	85	99	36	47	8	3	4.99	1.0	0.6	3.7
2014	36	77	89	33	41	7	3	4.95	1.0	0.5	3.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.