Baseball Projection.com

David Purcey

Age: 27 Team: TOR

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
7	7	130	128	18	53	105	6	69	64	4.43	24	24

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	98	111	48	76	18	7	5.79
20th	107	115	49	83	18	6	5.21
30th	114	119	50	91	18	6	4.97
40th	122	124	52	98	18	6	4.72
50th	130	128	53	105	18	6	4.43
60th	133	127	52	109	17	6	4.13
70th	136	128	52	112	17	5	4.04
80th	140	126	51	117	15	5	3.66
90th	145	124	49	122	14	4	3.35

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

21 2.0 9.2

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 27 130 126 53 111 16 6 4.23 1.0 1.9 8.4

2010 28 117 114 47 99 15 5 4.27 1.0 1.7 8.3

2011 29 106 103 41 88 13 5 4.19 1.0 1.6 8.6

2012 30 95 93 38 78 12 4 4.27 1.0 1.3 7.8

2013 31 85 84 35 69 11 4 4.38 1.0 1.1 7.4

2014 32 76 76 32 61 10 3 4.46 1.0 0.9 6.7

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
21	2.0	9.2

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	27	130	126	53	111	16	6	4.23	1.0	1.9	8.4
2010	28	117	114	47	99	15	5	4.27	1.0	1.7	8.3
2011	29	106	103	41	88	13	5	4.19	1.0	1.6	8.6
2012	30	95	93	38	78	12	4	4.27	1.0	1.3	7.8
2013	31	85	84	35	69	11	4	4.38	1.0	1.1	7.4
2014	32	76	76	32	61	10	3	4.46	1.0	0.9	6.7

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.