Baseball Projection.com

Clayton Richard

Age: 25 Team: CHA

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
7	8	141	164	17	46	77	5	82	76	4.85	26	26

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	107	142	42	54	18	6	6.31
20th	116	147	43	60	18	6	5.82
30th	125	152	44	66	17	5	5.33
40th	133	158	45	71	17	5	5.08
50th	141	164	46	77	17	5	4.85
60th	145	164	45	80	16	5	4.59
70th	149	163	45	83	15	4	4.29
80th	153	162	43	87	14	4	4.00
90th	158	160	41	92	12	3	3.65

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

21 2.0 9.2

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 25 144 156 45 82 14 5 4.29 1.0 2.1 9.2

2010 26 130 141 40 73 13 5 4.31 1.0 1.8 8.8

2011 27 117 128 35 66 12 4 4.34 1.0 1.6 8.6

2012 28 105 116 31 58 11 4 4.40 1.0 1.3 7.8

2013 29 95 104 28 52 10 3 4.34 1.0 1.3 8.6

2014 30 85 94 25 46 9 3 4.41 1.0 1.1 8.1

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
21	2.0	9.2

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	25	144	156	45	82	14	5	4.29	1.0	2.1	9.2
2010	26	130	141	40	73	13	5	4.31	1.0	1.8	8.8
2011	27	117	128	35	66	12	4	4.34	1.0	1.6	8.6
2012	28	105	116	31	58	11	4	4.40	1.0	1.3	7.8
2013	29	95	104	28	52	10	3	4.34	1.0	1.3	8.6
2014	30	85	94	25	46	9	3	4.41	1.0	1.1	8.1

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.