Mariano Rivera
Age: 39
Team: NYA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 5 |
2 |
63 |
56 |
4 |
11 |
60 |
3 |
22 |
20 |
2.86 |
58 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
47 |
50 |
11 |
42 |
5 |
4 |
4.21 |
| 20th |
51 |
52 |
11 |
47 |
5 |
3 |
3.71 |
| 30th |
55 |
53 |
11 |
51 |
4 |
3 |
3.27 |
| 40th |
59 |
54 |
11 |
56 |
4 |
3 |
2.90 |
| 50th |
63 |
56 |
11 |
60 |
4 |
3 |
2.86 |
| 60th |
64 |
56 |
11 |
62 |
4 |
3 |
2.67 |
| 70th |
67 |
55 |
10 |
65 |
3 |
2 |
2.42 |
| 80th |
69 |
54 |
9 |
68 |
3 |
2 |
2.22 |
| 90th |
71 |
52 |
8 |
71 |
2 |
2 |
1.77 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 14 |
2.7 |
12.3 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
39 |
64 |
54 |
11 |
64 |
4 |
3 |
2.65 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
12.6 |
| 2010 |
40 |
57 |
49 |
10 |
56 |
4 |
3 |
2.79 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
10.8 |
| 2011 |
41 |
51 |
44 |
10 |
49 |
3 |
2 |
2.74 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
11.2 |
| 2012 |
42 |
46 |
41 |
9 |
43 |
3 |
2 |
2.92 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
9.2 |
| 2013 |
43 |
41 |
37 |
8 |
37 |
3 |
2 |
3.03 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
7.4 |
| 2014 |
44 |
37 |
34 |
7 |
32 |
3 |
2 |
3.16 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
6.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.