Saul Rivera
Age: 31
Team: WAS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
4 |
78 |
81 |
4 |
34 |
58 |
3 |
38 |
35 |
4.04 |
69 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
59 |
70 |
31 |
41 |
5 |
4 |
5.34 |
| 20th |
64 |
73 |
32 |
45 |
5 |
3 |
4.92 |
| 30th |
69 |
75 |
32 |
50 |
4 |
3 |
4.43 |
| 40th |
74 |
78 |
33 |
54 |
4 |
3 |
4.14 |
| 50th |
78 |
81 |
34 |
58 |
4 |
3 |
4.04 |
| 60th |
80 |
81 |
34 |
60 |
4 |
3 |
3.94 |
| 70th |
83 |
80 |
33 |
63 |
3 |
2 |
3.47 |
| 80th |
85 |
80 |
32 |
66 |
3 |
2 |
3.28 |
| 90th |
88 |
78 |
31 |
69 |
2 |
2 |
2.97 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 6 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
31 |
78 |
82 |
34 |
54 |
4 |
3 |
4.15 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
| 2010 |
32 |
70 |
74 |
31 |
48 |
4 |
2 |
4.21 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
| 2011 |
33 |
63 |
67 |
29 |
42 |
3 |
2 |
4.23 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
| 2012 |
34 |
56 |
60 |
26 |
37 |
3 |
2 |
4.33 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
35 |
51 |
54 |
24 |
33 |
3 |
2 |
4.34 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2014 |
36 |
45 |
49 |
22 |
29 |
2 |
2 |
4.45 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.