Baseball Projection.com

Steven Rowe

Age: 28 Team: TEX
CHONE 2009 Projection
WonLostIPHitsHR BBSOHBRunsER ERAGamesGS
2 3 48 55 7 21 29 2 31 29 5.44 43 0

Percentiles
PercentileInningsHitsBBSO HRHBERA
10th 36 49 19 20 8 2 7.25
20th 39 50 20 22 7 2 6.46
30th 42 51 20 25 7 2 6.00
40th 45 53 21 27 7 2 5.60
50th 48 55 21 29 7 2 5.44
60th 49 55 21 30 7 2 5.14
70th 51 54 20 32 6 2 4.59
80th 52 54 20 33 6 1 4.33
90th 54 53 19 35 5 1 3.83

Weighted Value above replacement
RunsWinsValue ($mil)
1 0.1 0.8

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEARAGEInningsHits BBSOHRHBERAEx. LevWAR Value ($mil)
2009 28 48 53 21 32 6 2 4.96 1.0 0.0 0.4
2010 29 43 48 19 28 6 2 5.15 1.0 0.0 0.4
2011 30 39 43 17 25 5 2 5.00 1.0 0.0 0.4
2012 31 35 39 16 22 5 1 5.15 1.0 0.0 0.4
2013 32 32 35 14 20 4 1 4.88 1.0 0.0 0.4
2014 33 28 32 13 17 4 1 5.34 1.0 0.0 0.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.