Ervin Santana
Age: 26
Team: LAA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 12 |
9 |
191 |
183 |
23 |
52 |
168 |
8 |
87 |
80 |
3.77 |
30 |
30 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
147 |
157 |
47 |
125 |
23 |
8 |
4.71 |
| 20th |
158 |
163 |
48 |
136 |
23 |
8 |
4.44 |
| 30th |
169 |
170 |
49 |
147 |
23 |
8 |
4.21 |
| 40th |
180 |
176 |
51 |
157 |
23 |
8 |
4.00 |
| 50th |
191 |
183 |
52 |
168 |
23 |
8 |
3.77 |
| 60th |
195 |
183 |
51 |
173 |
22 |
8 |
3.65 |
| 70th |
200 |
183 |
51 |
178 |
21 |
7 |
3.47 |
| 80th |
205 |
182 |
50 |
184 |
20 |
7 |
3.25 |
| 90th |
210 |
180 |
48 |
191 |
18 |
6 |
2.96 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 42 |
4.0 |
18.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
192 |
178 |
53 |
179 |
24 |
8 |
3.71 |
1.0 |
4.0 |
17.6 |
| 2010 |
27 |
173 |
160 |
47 |
160 |
21 |
7 |
3.67 |
1.0 |
3.7 |
18.0 |
| 2011 |
28 |
156 |
146 |
41 |
142 |
19 |
6 |
3.69 |
1.0 |
3.3 |
17.7 |
| 2012 |
29 |
140 |
132 |
36 |
127 |
18 |
6 |
3.77 |
1.0 |
2.9 |
16.7 |
| 2013 |
30 |
126 |
119 |
33 |
113 |
16 |
5 |
3.77 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
16.6 |
| 2014 |
31 |
113 |
107 |
31 |
100 |
14 |
5 |
3.80 |
1.0 |
2.3 |
16.2 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.