Max Scherzer
Age: 24
Team: ARI
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 5 |
4 |
83 |
73 |
8 |
37 |
94 |
4 |
37 |
34 |
3.69 |
17 |
17 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
62 |
65 |
34 |
68 |
9 |
5 |
5.23 |
| 20th |
67 |
67 |
35 |
74 |
9 |
5 |
4.84 |
| 30th |
73 |
69 |
35 |
81 |
8 |
4 |
4.19 |
| 40th |
78 |
71 |
36 |
88 |
8 |
4 |
3.92 |
| 50th |
83 |
73 |
37 |
94 |
8 |
4 |
3.69 |
| 60th |
85 |
72 |
36 |
97 |
7 |
4 |
3.39 |
| 70th |
87 |
72 |
36 |
101 |
7 |
3 |
3.21 |
| 80th |
90 |
70 |
35 |
105 |
6 |
3 |
2.90 |
| 90th |
93 |
69 |
33 |
110 |
5 |
2 |
2.52 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 19 |
1.8 |
8.3 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
24 |
83 |
73 |
36 |
90 |
8 |
4 |
3.67 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
8.0 |
| 2010 |
25 |
75 |
65 |
32 |
81 |
7 |
4 |
3.58 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
8.3 |
| 2011 |
26 |
68 |
59 |
28 |
73 |
6 |
3 |
3.49 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
8.6 |
| 2012 |
27 |
61 |
54 |
25 |
65 |
6 |
3 |
3.65 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
7.8 |
| 2013 |
28 |
55 |
48 |
22 |
58 |
5 |
3 |
3.53 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
8.0 |
| 2014 |
29 |
49 |
45 |
19 |
52 |
5 |
2 |
3.75 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
7.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.