David Shafer
Age: 27
Team: OAK
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 2 |
3 |
46 |
47 |
7 |
29 |
31 |
3 |
30 |
28 |
5.48 |
42 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
34 |
42 |
27 |
20 |
8 |
4 |
7.94 |
| 20th |
36 |
44 |
27 |
23 |
8 |
4 |
7.50 |
| 30th |
40 |
44 |
28 |
26 |
7 |
3 |
6.30 |
| 40th |
43 |
46 |
28 |
28 |
7 |
3 |
5.86 |
| 50th |
46 |
47 |
29 |
31 |
7 |
3 |
5.48 |
| 60th |
48 |
46 |
28 |
33 |
6 |
3 |
4.69 |
| 70th |
49 |
46 |
28 |
34 |
6 |
2 |
4.59 |
| 80th |
51 |
44 |
27 |
37 |
5 |
2 |
3.88 |
| 90th |
53 |
43 |
26 |
39 |
4 |
1 |
3.23 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 1 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
27 |
46 |
47 |
30 |
34 |
7 |
3 |
5.42 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
28 |
41 |
42 |
26 |
30 |
6 |
3 |
5.36 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
29 |
37 |
39 |
23 |
27 |
6 |
3 |
5.62 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
30 |
33 |
34 |
21 |
24 |
5 |
3 |
5.49 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
31 |
30 |
32 |
19 |
21 |
5 |
2 |
5.71 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
32 |
27 |
28 |
18 |
19 |
4 |
2 |
5.54 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.