Steven Shell
Age: 26
Team: WAS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
4 |
69 |
66 |
8 |
23 |
64 |
3 |
33 |
31 |
4.04 |
59 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
52 |
58 |
21 |
46 |
9 |
4 |
5.37 |
| 20th |
57 |
60 |
22 |
51 |
8 |
3 |
4.74 |
| 30th |
61 |
62 |
22 |
55 |
8 |
3 |
4.43 |
| 40th |
65 |
64 |
23 |
59 |
8 |
3 |
4.29 |
| 50th |
69 |
66 |
23 |
64 |
8 |
3 |
4.04 |
| 60th |
71 |
66 |
23 |
66 |
8 |
3 |
3.80 |
| 70th |
73 |
65 |
22 |
69 |
7 |
3 |
3.45 |
| 80th |
76 |
64 |
21 |
72 |
6 |
2 |
2.96 |
| 90th |
78 |
63 |
20 |
75 |
5 |
2 |
2.65 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 6 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
69 |
67 |
23 |
60 |
8 |
3 |
4.00 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.1 |
| 2010 |
27 |
62 |
60 |
20 |
53 |
7 |
3 |
3.95 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
| 2011 |
28 |
56 |
55 |
18 |
48 |
7 |
2 |
4.06 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
| 2012 |
29 |
50 |
50 |
16 |
42 |
6 |
2 |
4.12 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
| 2013 |
30 |
46 |
44 |
14 |
38 |
5 |
2 |
3.81 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
| 2014 |
31 |
40 |
41 |
13 |
33 |
5 |
2 |
4.31 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.