James Shields
Age: 27
Team: TBA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 13 |
9 |
195 |
188 |
23 |
39 |
152 |
9 |
85 |
79 |
3.65 |
30 |
30 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
151 |
161 |
36 |
112 |
23 |
9 |
4.47 |
| 20th |
162 |
168 |
36 |
123 |
23 |
9 |
4.22 |
| 30th |
173 |
174 |
37 |
133 |
23 |
9 |
4.01 |
| 40th |
184 |
181 |
38 |
142 |
23 |
9 |
3.82 |
| 50th |
195 |
188 |
39 |
152 |
23 |
9 |
3.65 |
| 60th |
200 |
188 |
38 |
157 |
22 |
9 |
3.47 |
| 70th |
204 |
188 |
38 |
161 |
21 |
8 |
3.31 |
| 80th |
209 |
187 |
37 |
167 |
20 |
7 |
3.10 |
| 90th |
214 |
185 |
36 |
173 |
18 |
7 |
2.86 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 42 |
4.0 |
18.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
27 |
195 |
191 |
38 |
159 |
23 |
9 |
3.69 |
1.0 |
4.1 |
18.0 |
| 2010 |
28 |
175 |
173 |
34 |
142 |
21 |
8 |
3.74 |
1.0 |
3.6 |
17.5 |
| 2011 |
29 |
157 |
156 |
30 |
126 |
19 |
8 |
3.78 |
1.0 |
3.1 |
16.7 |
| 2012 |
30 |
141 |
141 |
27 |
112 |
17 |
7 |
3.80 |
1.0 |
2.8 |
16.2 |
| 2013 |
31 |
127 |
127 |
25 |
100 |
15 |
6 |
3.79 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
16.6 |
| 2014 |
32 |
114 |
115 |
23 |
88 |
14 |
5 |
3.87 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
15.5 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.