Chris Smith
Age: 28
Team: BOS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
3 |
62 |
63 |
8 |
21 |
45 |
2 |
32 |
30 |
4.35 |
53 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
46 |
56 |
20 |
31 |
9 |
3 |
6.07 |
| 20th |
51 |
58 |
20 |
35 |
9 |
2 |
5.47 |
| 30th |
55 |
59 |
20 |
39 |
8 |
2 |
4.75 |
| 40th |
58 |
61 |
21 |
42 |
8 |
2 |
4.66 |
| 50th |
62 |
63 |
21 |
45 |
8 |
2 |
4.35 |
| 60th |
64 |
62 |
21 |
47 |
7 |
2 |
3.94 |
| 70th |
66 |
62 |
20 |
49 |
7 |
2 |
3.68 |
| 80th |
68 |
61 |
19 |
51 |
6 |
1 |
3.31 |
| 90th |
70 |
59 |
18 |
54 |
5 |
1 |
2.83 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 5 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
28 |
63 |
61 |
21 |
49 |
8 |
2 |
4.03 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
| 2010 |
29 |
56 |
56 |
19 |
43 |
8 |
2 |
4.31 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
| 2011 |
30 |
51 |
50 |
17 |
39 |
7 |
2 |
4.18 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
| 2012 |
31 |
45 |
45 |
16 |
34 |
6 |
2 |
4.32 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
32 |
41 |
41 |
14 |
30 |
6 |
2 |
4.38 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2014 |
33 |
37 |
37 |
13 |
27 |
5 |
1 |
4.27 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.