Baseball Projection.com

Greg Smith

Age: 25 Team: COL

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
8	8	144	155	18	65	98	4	84	78	4.88	26	26

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	110	132	58	71	18	5	5.97
20th	119	138	59	78	18	5	5.60
30th	127	144	61	85	18	4	5.31
40th	136	150	63	91	18	4	5.10
50th	144	155	65	98	18	4	4.88
60th	148	155	65	101	17	4	4.56
70th	152	155	64	105	17	3	4.38
80th	156	154	63	109	15	3	4.04
90th	160	153	61	114	14	2	3.77

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

18 1.7 7.9

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 25 146 151 64 98 17 4 4.53 1.0 1.7 7.5

2010 26 131 136 57 87 15 4 4.54 1.0 1.5 7.4

2011 27 118 123 50 78 14 4 4.57 1.0 1.3 7.1

2012 28 107 111 44 70 12 3 4.45 1.0 1.3 7.8

2013 29 96 101 39 62 11 3 4.53 1.0 1.1 7.4

2014 30 86 91 36 55 10 3 4.62 1.0 0.9 6.7

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
18	1.7	7.9

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	25	146	151	64	98	17	4	4.53	1.0	1.7	7.5
2010	26	131	136	57	87	15	4	4.54	1.0	1.5	7.4
2011	27	118	123	50	78	14	4	4.57	1.0	1.3	7.1
2012	28	107	111	44	70	12	3	4.45	1.0	1.3	7.8
2013	29	96	101	39	62	11	3	4.53	1.0	1.1	7.4
2014	30	86	91	36	55	10	3	4.62	1.0	0.9	6.7

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.