John Smoltz
Age: 42
Team: BOS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 6 |
4 |
92 |
97 |
9 |
25 |
72 |
3 |
45 |
42 |
4.11 |
15 |
15 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
70 |
85 |
23 |
51 |
10 |
4 |
5.40 |
| 20th |
75 |
88 |
24 |
57 |
10 |
3 |
5.04 |
| 30th |
81 |
90 |
24 |
62 |
9 |
3 |
4.56 |
| 40th |
86 |
94 |
25 |
67 |
9 |
3 |
4.40 |
| 50th |
92 |
97 |
25 |
72 |
9 |
3 |
4.11 |
| 60th |
94 |
96 |
25 |
75 |
8 |
3 |
3.83 |
| 70th |
97 |
96 |
24 |
77 |
8 |
3 |
3.62 |
| 80th |
100 |
95 |
23 |
81 |
7 |
2 |
3.24 |
| 90th |
103 |
93 |
22 |
85 |
6 |
2 |
2.88 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 18 |
1.7 |
7.9 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
42 |
93 |
95 |
25 |
78 |
9 |
3 |
3.87 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
8.0 |
| 2010 |
43 |
83 |
87 |
23 |
68 |
9 |
2 |
4.08 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
6.9 |
| 2011 |
44 |
75 |
78 |
21 |
60 |
8 |
2 |
4.04 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
7.1 |
| 2012 |
45 |
67 |
71 |
19 |
52 |
7 |
2 |
4.14 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
6.1 |
| 2013 |
46 |
59 |
65 |
18 |
45 |
7 |
2 |
4.50 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
4.3 |
| 2014 |
47 |
54 |
58 |
16 |
39 |
6 |
2 |
4.31 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
5.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.