Baseball Projection.com

Brian Steinocher

Age: 24 Team: BOS
CHONE 2009 Projection
WonLostIPHitsHR BBSOHBRunsER ERAGamesGS
2 2 33 39 5 17 15 1 23 21 5.73 31 0

Percentiles
PercentileInningsHitsBBSO HRHBERA
10th 24 35 17 9 6 2 8.63
20th 26 37 17 10 6 1 7.96
30th 28 38 17 12 6 1 7.39
40th 31 38 17 13 5 1 6.10
50th 33 39 17 15 5 1 5.73
60th 35 38 16 16 4 1 4.89
70th 36 38 16 17 4 1 4.75
80th 38 36 15 19 3 0 3.79
90th 39 35 14 20 2 0 3.23

Weighted Value above replacement
RunsWinsValue ($mil)
1 0.1 0.8

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEARAGEInningsHits BBSOHRHBERAEx. LevWAR Value ($mil)
2009 24 33 39 17 16 5 1 5.74 1.0 0.0 0.4
2010 25 30 35 15 15 5 1 5.73 1.0 0.0 0.4
2011 26 27 31 13 13 4 1 5.46 1.0 0.0 0.4
2012 27 24 28 12 12 4 1 5.75 1.0 0.0 0.4
2013 28 22 25 10 11 3 1 5.27 1.0 0.0 0.4
2014 29 20 23 9 9 3 1 5.44 1.0 0.0 0.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.