Mitch Talbot
Age: 25
Team: TBA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 8 |
9 |
150 |
161 |
18 |
54 |
102 |
8 |
83 |
77 |
4.62 |
27 |
27 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
114 |
139 |
49 |
73 |
19 |
9 |
5.92 |
| 20th |
124 |
144 |
50 |
81 |
18 |
8 |
5.37 |
| 30th |
133 |
149 |
51 |
88 |
18 |
8 |
5.01 |
| 40th |
141 |
155 |
53 |
95 |
18 |
8 |
4.79 |
| 50th |
150 |
161 |
54 |
102 |
18 |
8 |
4.62 |
| 60th |
154 |
161 |
53 |
106 |
17 |
8 |
4.32 |
| 70th |
158 |
161 |
53 |
109 |
16 |
7 |
4.10 |
| 80th |
162 |
160 |
52 |
114 |
15 |
6 |
3.83 |
| 90th |
167 |
158 |
50 |
119 |
14 |
6 |
3.56 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 17 |
1.6 |
7.4 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
150 |
164 |
53 |
107 |
18 |
8 |
4.65 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
6.7 |
| 2010 |
26 |
135 |
148 |
47 |
96 |
16 |
7 |
4.64 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
6.9 |
| 2011 |
27 |
121 |
134 |
41 |
86 |
15 |
7 |
4.72 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
6.1 |
| 2012 |
28 |
109 |
121 |
36 |
76 |
13 |
6 |
4.67 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
6.1 |
| 2013 |
29 |
99 |
109 |
32 |
68 |
12 |
5 |
4.61 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
6.7 |
| 2014 |
30 |
88 |
99 |
29 |
60 |
11 |
5 |
4.79 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
5.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.