Julian Tavarez
Age: 36
Team: WAS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
4 |
59 |
62 |
4 |
25 |
49 |
3 |
30 |
28 |
4.27 |
52 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
45 |
54 |
23 |
35 |
5 |
3 |
5.60 |
| 20th |
49 |
56 |
23 |
39 |
5 |
3 |
5.14 |
| 30th |
52 |
58 |
24 |
42 |
4 |
3 |
4.85 |
| 40th |
56 |
60 |
24 |
46 |
4 |
3 |
4.50 |
| 50th |
59 |
62 |
25 |
49 |
4 |
3 |
4.27 |
| 60th |
61 |
62 |
25 |
51 |
4 |
3 |
3.98 |
| 70th |
63 |
61 |
24 |
53 |
3 |
3 |
3.57 |
| 80th |
64 |
61 |
24 |
55 |
3 |
2 |
3.38 |
| 90th |
67 |
59 |
23 |
58 |
2 |
2 |
2.82 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 4 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
36 |
59 |
63 |
25 |
46 |
4 |
3 |
4.33 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
| 2010 |
37 |
53 |
57 |
23 |
40 |
4 |
3 |
4.47 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2011 |
38 |
48 |
51 |
21 |
35 |
3 |
2 |
4.28 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
| 2012 |
39 |
42 |
47 |
19 |
31 |
3 |
2 |
4.68 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
40 |
38 |
42 |
18 |
27 |
3 |
2 |
4.74 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
41 |
34 |
38 |
16 |
24 |
3 |
2 |
4.88 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.