Matt Thornton
Age: 32
Team: CHA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
3 |
57 |
53 |
5 |
21 |
58 |
2 |
25 |
23 |
3.63 |
67 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
43 |
47 |
20 |
41 |
6 |
3 |
5.23 |
| 20th |
47 |
49 |
20 |
45 |
6 |
2 |
4.60 |
| 30th |
50 |
50 |
20 |
50 |
5 |
2 |
4.14 |
| 40th |
54 |
51 |
21 |
54 |
5 |
2 |
3.83 |
| 50th |
57 |
53 |
21 |
58 |
5 |
2 |
3.63 |
| 60th |
59 |
53 |
21 |
60 |
5 |
2 |
3.36 |
| 70th |
60 |
52 |
20 |
63 |
4 |
2 |
3.00 |
| 80th |
63 |
51 |
19 |
66 |
4 |
1 |
2.71 |
| 90th |
65 |
49 |
18 |
69 |
3 |
1 |
2.35 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 10 |
1.5 |
7.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
32 |
58 |
50 |
21 |
62 |
4 |
2 |
3.18 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
6.6 |
| 2010 |
33 |
52 |
45 |
19 |
55 |
4 |
2 |
3.27 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
5.5 |
| 2011 |
34 |
47 |
41 |
17 |
48 |
3 |
2 |
3.21 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
6.2 |
| 2012 |
35 |
42 |
37 |
16 |
42 |
3 |
2 |
3.36 |
1.4 |
0.8 |
4.7 |
| 2013 |
36 |
38 |
34 |
15 |
37 |
3 |
1 |
3.46 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
4.0 |
| 2014 |
37 |
34 |
31 |
13 |
33 |
3 |
1 |
3.58 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
3.2 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.