Baseball Projection.com

Daniel Turpen

Age: 22 Team: SFN
CHONE 2009 Projection
WonLostIPHitsHR BBSOHBRunsER ERAGamesGS
1 2 26 31 5 17 16 1 20 19 6.58 25 0

Percentiles
PercentileInningsHitsBBSO HRHBERA
10th 19 28 16 10 6 2 9.47
20th 21 29 16 12 6 1 8.57
30th 22 29 17 13 5 1 7.77
40th 24 30 17 15 5 1 7.13
50th 26 31 17 16 5 1 6.58
60th 27 31 17 17 5 1 6.33
70th 28 30 16 18 4 1 5.46
80th 30 29 15 19 3 0 4.20
90th 31 28 14 21 3 0 3.77

Weighted Value above replacement
RunsWinsValue ($mil)
0 0.0 0.4

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEARAGEInningsHits BBSOHRHBERAEx. LevWAR Value ($mil)
2009 22 26 31 17 15 5 1 6.52 1.0 0.0 0.4
2010 23 23 28 15 14 5 1 6.83 1.0 0.0 0.4
2011 24 21 25 13 13 4 1 6.42 1.0 0.0 0.4
2012 25 19 23 12 12 4 1 6.71 1.0 0.0 0.4
2013 26 17 21 10 11 4 1 6.90 1.0 0.0 0.4
2014 27 15 19 9 9 3 1 6.89 1.0 0.0 0.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.