Baseball Projection.com

Cesar Valdez

Age: 24 Team: ARI

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
5	8	115	125	18	49	75	5	70	65	5.09	21	21

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	85	110	46	52	19	6	6.99
20th	93	114	46	58	19	6	6.39
30th	100	117	47	64	18	6	5.85
40th	108	121	48	69	18	5	5.33
50th	115	125	49	75	18	5	5.09
60th	118	124	48	78	17	5	4.73
70th	122	123	47	82	16	4	4.35
80th	126	121	45	86	14	3	3.93
90th	130	118	43	91	12	2	3.46

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

13 1.2 5.7

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 24 116 123 48 72 17 5 4.82 1.0 1.0 4.2

2010 25 105 110 42 65 15 5 4.71 1.0 1.0 4.6

2011 26 94 100 37 58 14 4 4.80 1.0 0.8 4.1

2012 27 85 90 33 52 12 4 4.72 1.0 0.8 4.5

2013 28 76 82 29 46 11 3 4.80 1.0 0.7 4.3

2014 29 69 74 26 41 10 3 4.77 1.0 0.6 4.0

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
13	1.2	5.7

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	24	116	123	48	72	17	5	4.82	1.0	1.0	4.2
2010	25	105	110	42	65	15	5	4.71	1.0	1.0	4.6
2011	26	94	100	37	58	14	4	4.80	1.0	0.8	4.1
2012	27	85	90	33	52	12	4	4.72	1.0	0.8	4.5
2013	28	76	82	29	46	11	3	4.80	1.0	0.7	4.3
2014	29	69	74	26	41	10	3	4.77	1.0	0.6	4.0

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.