Baseball Projection.com

Javier Vazquez

Age: 32 Team: ATL

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
14	8	196	172	19	54	200	7	77	71	3.26	30	30

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	151	147	48	150	19	8	4.05
20th	162	153	50	163	19	7	3.78
30th	174	159	51	176	19	7	3.57
40th	185	165	53	188	19	7	3.41
50th	196	172	54	200	19	7	3.26
60th	200	172	54	205	18	7	3.11
70th	204	173	53	211	18	6	3.00
80th	209	171	52	218	16	6	2.80
90th	215	169	50	226	15	5	2.55

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

46 4.4 19.8

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 32 193 179 54 186 20 7 3.55 1.0 4.4 19.3

2010 33 174 162 49 165 18 6 3.57 1.0 3.9 18.9

2011 34 156 146 45 145 16 6 3.61 1.0 3.4 18.3

2012 35 139 133 42 128 15 5 3.77 1.0 2.9 16.7

2013 36 125 120 38 112 13 5 3.77 1.0 2.6 16.6

2014 37 112 109 35 99 12 4 3.87 1.0 2.1 14.8

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
46	4.4	19.8

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	32	193	179	54	186	20	7	3.55	1.0	4.4	19.3
2010	33	174	162	49	165	18	6	3.57	1.0	3.9	18.9
2011	34	156	146	45	145	16	6	3.61	1.0	3.4	18.3
2012	35	139	133	42	128	15	5	3.77	1.0	2.9	16.7
2013	36	125	120	38	112	13	5	3.77	1.0	2.6	16.6
2014	37	112	109	35	99	12	4	3.87	1.0	2.1	14.8

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.