Ryan Wagner
Age: 26
Team: WAS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 2 |
3 |
40 |
43 |
4 |
20 |
27 |
1 |
23 |
21 |
4.73 |
36 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
29 |
39 |
20 |
17 |
5 |
2 |
7.45 |
| 20th |
32 |
40 |
20 |
20 |
5 |
2 |
6.47 |
| 30th |
35 |
41 |
20 |
22 |
5 |
1 |
5.66 |
| 40th |
38 |
42 |
20 |
25 |
4 |
1 |
4.97 |
| 50th |
40 |
43 |
20 |
27 |
4 |
1 |
4.73 |
| 60th |
42 |
43 |
19 |
29 |
4 |
1 |
4.29 |
| 70th |
43 |
41 |
19 |
30 |
3 |
1 |
3.98 |
| 80th |
45 |
40 |
18 |
32 |
2 |
0 |
3.20 |
| 90th |
47 |
38 |
16 |
35 |
1 |
0 |
2.49 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 3 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
40 |
43 |
20 |
25 |
4 |
1 |
4.74 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
27 |
36 |
40 |
18 |
22 |
4 |
1 |
5.01 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
28 |
33 |
35 |
16 |
20 |
3 |
1 |
4.58 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
29 |
29 |
32 |
14 |
18 |
3 |
1 |
4.89 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
30 |
26 |
29 |
13 |
16 |
3 |
1 |
5.10 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
31 |
23 |
26 |
12 |
14 |
2 |
1 |
5.05 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.