Baseball Projection.com

Barry Zito

Age: 31 Team: SFN

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
8	11	176	182	19	90	120	6	99	92	4.7	30	30

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	135	154	79	88	19	7	5.73
20th	145	162	81	96	19	6	5.46
30th	156	168	84	104	19	6	5.08
40th	166	175	87	112	19	6	4.88
50th	176	182	90	120	19	6	4.70
60th	180	182	90	124	18	6	4.50
70th	185	182	89	128	17	5	4.23
80th	189	182	88	133	16	5	4.05
90th	194	181	87	138	15	4	3.76

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

15 1.4 6.6

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 31 175 184 91 114 21 6 4.89 1.0 1.3 5.9

2010 32 157 166 83 101 19 5 4.95 1.0 1.1 5.1

2011 33 141 150 76 89 17 5 5.02 1.0 0.9 4.6

2012 34 126 135 70 79 15 4 5.08 1.0 0.7 3.9

2013 35 113 122 64 69 14 4 5.20 1.0 0.5 3.1

2014 36 102 109 59 61 12 3 5.11 1.0 0.5 3.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
15	1.4	6.6

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	31	175	184	91	114	21	6	4.89	1.0	1.3	5.9
2010	32	157	166	83	101	19	5	4.95	1.0	1.1	5.1
2011	33	141	150	76	89	17	5	5.02	1.0	0.9	4.6
2012	34	126	135	70	79	15	4	5.08	1.0	0.7	3.9
2013	35	113	122	64	69	14	4	5.20	1.0	0.5	3.1
2014	36	102	109	59	61	12	3	5.11	1.0	0.5	3.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.